The beauty and the bias
A tale of self-delusion and fallacy
Maximilien Riehl / max@flatmap.ninja / @maximilienriehl / github.com/mriehl
Obligatory introduction
- DEV at ImmobilienScout24
- infracoding (python, shell)
- Layer 7: Scala, Python, Java (meh)
- QA
Let's talk about bias
We do not see things as they are, but as we are ourselves.
Attribution: anonymous
Acknowledgements / Disclaimer
You are now less dumb by David McRaney
Ego depletion
Some(research) - Baumeister et al.
- Self-restraint & hungry ⇒ More likely to give up early
The dumb animal, the mana bar, and You
The dumb animal, the mana bar, and You
Calcifer by inverted-typo.tumblr.com
The dumb animal, the mana bar, and You
Calcifer by inverted-typo.tumblr.com
Cost: 40 mana
What depletes willpower
- Decisions
- Restraint
- Difficult tasks / executive brain functions
- ... and way too many others
What refills willpower (?)
- Glucose
- Sleep
The process model of ego depletion
Key takeaways
- Willpower is not a skill
- Don't spend, invest
- Trick the animal into working for you
- Eat before decisions - just in case ;-)
The illusion of asymmetric insight
Some(research) - Pronin, Kruger et al.
- You don't know me, but I know you (2001)
- 6 studies
- Participants answer questions about own and close friend's "true self"
Own "true self"
Other's "true self"
Explaining the asymmetry: Personae
Consequences of asymmetric insight
- Failure to see the nuances in others (diversity WTF)
- Enhances subjective bias
- Especially so in crowds
Asymmetric insight in crowds
Consequences of asymmetric insight
- Failure to see the nuances in others (diversity WTF)
- Enhances subjective bias
- Especially so in crowds
- Also true on a "team level"
Key takeaways / outlook
- You want to get rid of asymmetric insight!
- Robbers cave experiment (think "Lord of the flies")
- Fix: Working together to solve common problems
- This is exactly what DevOps is about!
- Individualism is (probably) culture specific
The post-hoc fallacy
"Post-hoc" Etymology
- Post hoc ergo propter hoc
- "After this, therefore because of this"
Modern examples
- Superstitious athletes
- Chicken man!
- “You know what they call alternative medicine that's been proved to work? - Medicine.” (Tim Minchin)
- Astrology
- #PowerBalance
Vending machines
Why are we so vulnerable to post-hoc fallacies?
Why are we so vulnerable to post-hoc fallacies?
- Evolutionary advantage
- Player 1
- Eats a mushroom, gets sick.
- Does a double blind study on the mushroom type.
- Player 2
- Eats a mushroom, gets sick.
- Stops eating mushrooms.
- Self-enhancing bias / illusion of control
Key takeaways
- This is usually wrong in IT
- When in doubt: double blind study that sh*t
- Try to avoid snake oil
- Placebo effect can be useful for internal processes
Self-healing with alternative medicine
Image credit: David Richfield (GFDL)
Self-healing with awesome (next step)
Thanks!
Any questions?
The beauty and the bias
A tale of self-delusion and fallacy
Maximilien Riehl / max@flatmap.ninja / @maximilienriehl / github.com/mriehl