The beauty and the bias

A tale of self-delusion and fallacy

Maximilien Riehl / max@flatmap.ninja / @maximilienriehl / github.com/mriehl

Obligatory introduction

  • DEV at ImmobilienScout24
  • infracoding (python, shell)
  • Layer 7: Scala, Python, Java (meh)
  • QA

Let's talk about bias

We do not see things as they are, but as we are ourselves.

Attribution: anonymous

Acknowledgements / Disclaimer

You are now less dumb by David McRaney

Ego depletion

Some(research) - Baumeister et al.

  • Self-restraint & hungry ⇒ More likely to give up early

The dumb animal, the mana bar, and You

The dumb animal, the mana bar, and You

Calcifer by inverted-typo.tumblr.com

The dumb animal, the mana bar, and You

Calcifer by inverted-typo.tumblr.com

Cost: 40 mana

What depletes willpower

  • Decisions
  • Restraint
  • Difficult tasks / executive brain functions
  • ... and way too many others

What refills willpower (?)

  • Glucose
  • Sleep

The process model of ego depletion

Key takeaways

  • Willpower is not a skill
  • Don't spend, invest
  • Trick the animal into working for you
  • Eat before decisions - just in case ;-)

The illusion of asymmetric insight

Some(research) - Pronin, Kruger et al.

  • You don't know me, but I know you (2001)
  • 6 studies
  • Participants answer questions about own and close friend's "true self"

Own "true self"

Work by Uwe Kils (GNU FDL 1.2)

Other's "true self"

Editing by Stephan "photoshop" Bauer

Explaining the asymmetry: Personae

Consequences of asymmetric insight

  • Failure to see the nuances in others (diversity WTF)
  • Enhances subjective bias
  • Especially so in crowds

Asymmetric insight in crowds

Consequences of asymmetric insight

  • Failure to see the nuances in others (diversity WTF)
  • Enhances subjective bias
  • Especially so in crowds
  • Also true on a "team level"

Key takeaways / outlook

  • You want to get rid of asymmetric insight!
  • Robbers cave experiment (think "Lord of the flies")
  • Fix: Working together to solve common problems
  • This is exactly what DevOps is about!
  • Individualism is (probably) culture specific

The post-hoc fallacy

"Post-hoc" Etymology

  • Post hoc ergo propter hoc
  • "After this, therefore because of this"

Modern examples

  • Superstitious athletes
    • Chicken man!
  • “You know what they call alternative medicine that's been proved to work? - Medicine.” (Tim Minchin)
  • Astrology
  • #PowerBalance

Vending machines

Image by PCHS-NJROTC (GFDL)

Why are we so vulnerable to post-hoc fallacies?

Why are we so vulnerable to post-hoc fallacies?

  • Evolutionary advantage
    • Player 1
      • Eats a mushroom, gets sick.
      • Does a double blind study on the mushroom type.
    • Player 2
      • Eats a mushroom, gets sick.
      • Stops eating mushrooms.
  • Self-enhancing bias / illusion of control

Key takeaways

  • This is usually wrong in IT
  • When in doubt: double blind study that sh*t
  • Try to avoid snake oil
  • Placebo effect can be useful for internal processes

Self-healing with alternative medicine

Image credit: David Richfield (GFDL)

Self-healing with awesome (next step)

Thanks!

Any questions?